It sounds like a sports fever dream: Texas State University’s Bobcats leaving the Sun Belt Conference for a newly restructured Pac‑12. Yet recent realignment chatter suggests this possibility is more than just message-board fantasy. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that Texas State has “emerged at the forefront” of schools in line for a Pac‑12 invite. The Pac‑12’s collapse and rebuild have created strange bedfellows – and Texas State, of all programs, might fill the last puzzle piece the Pac‑12 needs to remain an FBS league. Let’s break down the potential move, from the money and miles involved to the domino effect on the Sun Belt (hello, Louisiana Tech!), all with a healthy dose of fan perspective and rumor mill spice.

Money Talks: Will the Pac‑12 Pay Off?

One big reason Texas State would even consider bolting the Sun Belt is the lure of a bigger TV payday. The Sun Belt’s current media deal pays its members roughly $2 million per year, a modest sum in the realignment sweepstakes. By comparison, the Mountain West distributes about $4 million, and projections for the rebuilt Pac‑12 suggest around $8–10 million per school. In theory, that means Pac‑12 membership could quadruple Texas State’s TV revenue share versus the Sun Belt.

However, before we declare “problem solved” for the Bobcats’ budget, it’s worth noting a few caveats. First, Texas State’s president Kelly Damphousse has signaled he won’t accept being a second-class member. In April he tweeted about wanting a “full bowl [of soup] or nothing,” a cryptic reference to insisting on a full media revenue share. (In other words, no half-pay entry deal for the Pac‑12’s newbie.) Assuming Texas State gets a full slice of the Pac‑12 pie, we’re talking maybe ~$8 million annually – significantly more than the Sun Belt’s $2M payout, but notably less than what power conferences used to pay. In fact, even the American Athletic (AAC) paid Memphis around $11 million last year, which exceeds what the Pac‑12’s new deal will likely deliver per school. The Pac‑12’s glory days of $30M payouts are long gone; the “Pac-12” name remains, but the dollars (and teams) have diminished.

Then there’s the cost side of the ledger. More money in TV revenue sounds great, but Texas State would also face higher expenses in a far-flung Pac‑12. As local columnist Colton McWilliams wryly noted, “shipping Texas State athletics across multiple time zones is not beneficial for anyone involved.” All those extra flights (yes, flights – no one’s busing from San Marcos to the West Coast), lodging, and missed class time for athletes could chew up a chunk of the new revenue. And let’s not forget the exit fee: leaving the Sun Belt will cost Texas State $5 million if done by June 30, 2025, but a hefty $10 million after July 1. That clock is ticking, which is why realignment watchers think any Pac‑12 invitation would come sooner rather than later. Texas State has to weigh whether the long-term revenue bump offsets the one-time exit fee and permanently increased travel budget. It’s a classic risk-reward calculation, with no guarantee the Pac‑12’s media deal (still in flux) will be a financial panacea.

Miles and Maps: The Geography Nightmare

Beyond dollars, the geography of this move might be the biggest shock to the system. Texas State is currently an outlier on the western edge of the Sun Belt, but its conference foes are at least in the same neighborhood of the country. The Bobcats’ closest Sun Belt rivals – e.g. Louisiana  – are only about 380 miles away in Lafayette. Most of their division foes (UL-Monroe, Arkansas State, Southern Miss, etc.) are a long bus ride but still within one day’s drive of San Marcos, Texas.

Now consider the “new” Pac‑12 alignment. After the 2023 realignment exodus, the Pac‑12 was left with just two members (Oregon State and Washington State). In a bid to survive, it has added five Mountain West schools – Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State, and Utah State – plus non-football member Gonzaga. If Texas State joins, the nearest conference opponent might be Colorado State in Fort Collins, roughly 900 miles away. The rest are even farther: San Diego (~1,150 miles), Fresno (~1,350), Boise (~1,380), and Washington State in Pullman a whopping ~1,970 miles away. For comparison, Texas State’s longest Sun Belt road trip currently is to James Madison in Virginia (~1,433 miles), and that cross-division matchup is a rarity. In other words, every Pac‑12 trip would be as far or farther than the farthest trips they’ve ever made in the Sun Belt.

To put a fine point on it: “Even the Bobcats’ longest conference road trip to James Madison (1,433 miles) is shorter than Texas State making a trip to Washington State (1,977 miles)”. That’s a two-time-zone trek to the Pacific Northwest versus a trip within the Eastern U.S. The travel grind would be real. Imagine midweek volleyball games or baseball series – currently, Texas State can bus to many Sun Belt schools, but in the Pac‑12 almost every away game means a flight. The time zone factor looms large, too: Pac‑12 games in California or Washington would kick off late by Central Time standards, and teams would get home at all hours. It’s no surprise observers argue that “traveling thousands of miles more than what you face in the Sun Belt is not worth the mileage and the headaches”. The Bobcats would essentially trade a regional travel footprint for a national one, which is unprecedented for a program of their size. Geography doesn’t have to be destiny, but in college sports it often is – and Texas State joining a conference with no nearby members would be almost unheard of.

Enter Louisiana Tech: From ‘Sun Belch’ to Sun Belt?

Now, let’s pivot to the ripple effects. If Texas State bails, the Sun Belt suddenly has an opening to fill. The hottest rumor (also fed by Thamel’s report) is that Louisiana Tech would be target number one. On paper, Tech makes perfect sense: they’re in Ruston, Louisiana – smack in Sun Belt territory – and would reinforce the Sun Belt’s West Division lineup of southern teams. Tech’s presence would instantly rekindle old rivalries with Sun Belt neighbors: the Bulldogs used to battle Louisiana and ULM regularly, and fans on all sides would love to see those series resume. In fact, adding La Tech would give the Sun Belt three football schools in Louisiana (joining UL and ULM), bringing the band back together in the Bayou State. The geography is so ideal that sources say Tech has a leg up precisely because “Louisiana Tech’s location…creates natural rivalries and easy travel with ULM, Louisiana and Southern Miss”. The Sun Belt has emphasized regional cohesion in recent expansions, and Tech fits that philosophy perfectly.

But here’s the rich irony: Louisiana Tech’s fans (and administrators) have long held a superiority complex toward the Sun Belt. For years, Tech folks practically scoffed at the idea of being in the Sun Belt, often deriding it with the nickname “Sun Belch.” 😮 That’s right – some Tech diehards couldn’t even bring themselves to speak the conference’s name without a built-in insult. As one (admittedly salty) Sun Belt fan complained on a forum, “They to this day still refer to us as Sun Belch. [It’s] the most ridiculously cocky bunch of fans… I’ve ever come across.” Tech fans and brass have long viewed Conference USA (their current home) as a step above the Sun Belt, and they haven’t been shy about saying so.

A little history illustrates this attitude. Back in 2008, Louisiana Tech’s then-athletic director (and head coach) Derek Dooley publicly stated Tech wanted “nothing to do with Sun Belt schools.” Tech even reportedly helped block Sun Belt member UL from a bowl game that year, simply to avoid legitimizing a Sun Belt opponent. Fast-forward to 2012: Tech infamously turned down an invitation to the Independence Bowl because the matchup would have been against Sun Belt rival ULM. They arrogantly held out for a “better” bowl…and wound up with no bowl at all when no other invite came. Oops. As one Sun Belt fan put it, “the delusion up in Ruston is strong” when it comes to how Tech sees itself relative to Sun Belt teams. Even as recently as 2020, a certain Tech administrator made snide comments about how programs like Louisiana should aspire to “move up” to a league like C-USA, rather than Tech ever slumming it in the Sun Belt.

All of this makes Tech’s current flirtation with the Sun Belt deliciously ironic. The Bulldogs might soon be begging to join the very conference they’ve disparaged for decades. You can bet Sun Belt loyalists are savoring this twist. “Watching CUSA schools try to come to the Sun Belt gives Tech an awkward position because agreeing to join would make them look foolish with the way they’ve talked down about the conference for decades,” that same Sun Belt forum poster wrote in 2021. In other words: swallowing their pride and admitting the Sun Belt is now the better place to be would be a hard pill for Tech’s fanbase – formerly so proud of their “we’re above the Sun Belt” stance – to swallow. Some rival fans are downright spiteful about it, essentially saying let ’em rot for their hubris. But spite doesn’t pay the bills, and the reality is Tech needs a stable home. C-USA has been gutted in recent years, losing many of its top programs, and is a shell of what it was. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt has risen (arguably now the strongest Group of 5 league in football). The tables have turned: now it’s Louisiana Tech knocking on the Sun Belt’s door, hoping there’s no grudge holding them back.

For their part, Tech’s leadership is being publicly coy – as expected. “We don’t take stances on rumors… We will always do what is in the best interest of Louisiana Tech,” said Tech president Les Guice (via a spokesperson) when asked about Sun Belt speculation. Tech’s athletic director Ryan Ivey struck a similar tone, saying he’s constantly monitoring the landscape and talking to colleagues in other conferences, but “that’s about all I can say”. In other words: no one at Tech is confirming interest, but you can bet they’re ready to pounce if an invite comes. It’s also worth noting Tech has been in the Sun Belt before – the Bulldogs were Sun Belt members from 1991 until 2001, before leaving for the WAC. So in a sense this would be a homecoming (with a side of humble pie).

Is Louisiana Tech the Best Sun Belt Replacement?

All irony aside, the Sun Belt will have a choice to make if Texas State heads west. Is Louisiana Tech truly the best addition, or could someone else be a better fit? The two other names floating in realignment gossip are Western Kentucky and Liberty University. Each brings something to the table – and some baggage – in comparison to Louisiana Tech.

Western Kentucky boasts a very strong athletic résumé for a mid-major. The Hilltoppers have been a consistent winner in football (bowl eligible every year but one since 2014) and have a tradition of success in men’s basketball as well. Many fans and pundits would rank WKU as a “stronger” program than La Tech right now; in fact, Tech hasn’t even had a winning football season since 2019. From a pure competitiveness standpoint, WKU might be the best team available to the Sun Belt. However, WKU is located in Bowling Green, Kentucky – geographically, that’s a stretch for the Sun Belt map (farther north than any current member). Some Sun Belt presidents reportedly do admire WKU’s athletics, but the early vibe is that Tech’s geography gives it the edge for the Sun Belt’s need. (Translation: Troy and South Alabama probably aren’t eager to fly to Kentucky for league games if they can avoid it.)

And then there’s Liberty University, a real wild card. On the field, Liberty has been phenomenal for a newcomer to FBS. The Flames have gone to bowl games six years in a row, even winning Conference USA in their first year there and earning a Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2023. They have gobs of money (bankrolled by billionaire boosters) and ambition to match. Normally, a program that wins and spends like Liberty would be a top expansion target. But… Liberty’s history and reputation make them a tough sell. This is the school, after all, that tried to literally buy its way into the Sun Belt and C-USA a few years ago, waving huge checks, and still got turned down. In 2014, Liberty reportedly offered the Sun Belt a “sizable” entry fee – insiders say something just under $24 million – to join, and the conference still said no. (They added Coastal Carolina instead, with Sun Belt officials citing geography – and perhaps an unspoken cultural fit – as the reason.) C-USA also rebuffed Liberty at first, apparently because multiple university presidents didn’t want to deal with Liberty’s outspoken evangelical leadership. Liberty’s own president at the time, Jerry Falwell Jr., cried foul and accused those leagues of anti-religious bias. Regardless, Liberty was forced to go independent in football for a while before finally finding a home in C-USA in 2023.

All this is to say: there’s not much enthusiasm within the Sun Belt for inviting Liberty, even now. The Sun Belt has worked hard to brand itself as a regional, public-school-driven league with passionate in-state rivalries. Liberty is a private Christian university in Virginia and carries some political baggage. From a fan perspective, Liberty’s inclusion would be met with a lot of side-eyes; many Sun Belt supporters still remember how Liberty’s big-money bid was spurned. Indeed, sources indicate that “according to ESPN, the Sun Belt would prefer Louisiana Tech over [Western Kentucky or Liberty] right now.” The appeal of Tech’s location and peer profile is simply stronger, despite Liberty’s on-field success. Liberty themselves might not be eager to join a conference that publicly snubbed them before, unless they get truly desperate.

It’s also worth mentioning a dark-horse replacement idea: no replacement at all. The Sun Belt could choose to stick with 13 football members if Texas State leaves. A few fans have mused that they’d rather not invite Tech given the history, even if it means an unbalanced schedule. But realistically, the Sun Belt would want to get back to an even number (14) for scheduling and stability. Tech appears to be the “early favorite” if the dominoes fall, with Western Kentucky as a strong Plan B. Liberty, for now, is a distant consideration.

The Bottom Line

So, is Texas State really going to bolt the Sun Belt for the Pac‑12? And if so, will Louisiana Tech swallow its pride to take the Bobcats’ spot? It’s a fluid situation, driven by a cascade of realignment needs. The Pac‑12 must get to 8 football members by 2026 to maintain FBS status, and after adding a bunch of Mountain West teams, they’re sitting at seven. Texas State has emerged as the surprise solution to that problem – a university with 40,000+ students in a recruiting-rich Texas market. The Bobcats have recently turned around their football fortunes (back-to-back bowl wins under rising coach G.J. Kinne), and the idea of a Texas foothold has Pac‑12 presidents intrigued. By all accounts, Texas State wants the move if the terms are right. The school already flirted with the Mountain West last fall (and reportedly turned down a verbal offer), perhaps holding out for this Pac‑12 opportunity. Its president’s cryptic social media posts – including a photo of beavers in the San Marcos River, hint hint 😉 – have only poured fuel on the rumor fire.

For Texas State, the allure is understandable: the Pac‑12 name still carries prestige (it’s technically a power conference… for now), and the money is better than what they get in the Sun Belt. It’s a chance to step onto a bigger stage, however ragged that stage may be after the realignment earthquake. But the Bobcats will also be leaping into a great unknown. The travel strain, the competitive level, and the instability of a rebuilding Pac‑12 are all serious concerns. There’s a reason one columnist opined that Texas State ultimately “made the right decision” by staying in the Sun Belt when the Mountain West came calling. Will that hold true if the Pac‑12 comes calling with a formal invite? We’re about to find out.

And if Texas State does say yes to the Pac‑12, get your popcorn ready for the next act: Louisiana Tech’s long-awaited Sun Belt apology tour. The Bulldogs might soon have to reintroduce themselves to Sun Belt fans with a dose of humility – trading in “Sun Belch” for a sincere “Sun Belt, please?” The coming weeks will tell us if this soap opera becomes reality. In the wacky world of college sports realignment, never say never.